30 lines
1.5 KiB
Markdown
30 lines
1.5 KiB
Markdown
# Reddit Trending Scanner
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## Current Understanding
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Tracks mention velocity across subreddits. 50+ mentions in 6 hours = HIGH priority.
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20-49 = MEDIUM. Mention count should appear in context ("47 mentions in 6hrs").
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Signal is early-indicator oriented — catches momentum before price moves.
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P&L data shows this is among the worst-performing strategies: -10.64% avg 30d return,
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13.6% 1d win rate. The root cause is that LOW and MEDIUM priority candidates (any
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ticker with 1-49 raw mentions) add noise without signal. Only HIGH priority (>=50
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mentions) candidates have a plausible momentum thesis. Scanner now skips LOW and
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MEDIUM priority candidates.
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## Evidence Log
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### 2026-04-11 — P&L review
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- 22 recommendations, 1d win rate 13.6%, 7d win rate 16.7%, 30d win rate 15.4%.
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- Avg 30d return: -10.64%. Second worst strategy after news_catalyst (-17.5%).
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- Contrast with social_dd (+0.94% 30d): the absence of a quality filter is the
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key differentiator. reddit_trending emits any ticker with raw text mentions.
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- The raw text mention count (computed via `result.upper().count(ticker)`) is
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susceptible to false matches (short tickers appear in unrelated words).
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- Primary fix: skip MEDIUM and LOW priority candidates — only emit tickers with
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>=50 mentions. This restricts output to genuinely viral tickers.
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- Confidence: high (clear signal from 22 recs all losing, vs. DD scanner positive)
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## Pending Hypotheses
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- [ ] Does mention velocity (rate of increase) outperform raw mention count?
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- [ ] Do HIGH priority (>=50 mention) picks specifically outperform MEDIUM (20-49)?
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