168 lines
4.2 KiB
Markdown
168 lines
4.2 KiB
Markdown
# Pump Detection Quick Reference
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## 🚀 What's a Pump?
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Rapid price increase driven by volume spike, momentum, social buzz, or technical setup. Goal: Enter BEFORE the move, not after.
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## 📊 Detection Methods (5-in-1)
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| Signal | Threshold | Weight | What It Means |
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|--------|-----------|--------|--------------|
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| **Volume Spike** | 2x+ average | 25% | Massive interest surge |
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| **Price Acceleration** | 5%+ recent | 20% | Momentum building |
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| **Social Buzz** | Top trending | 15% | Retail FOMO starting |
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| **Oversold Bounce** | RSI < 30 | 20% | Bounce potential high |
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| **Catalyst Event** | Within 3mo | 20% | Event-driven pump |
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## 🎯 Score = Action
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| Score | Signal | Action |
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|-------|--------|--------|
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| 70+ | 🔴 VERY HIGH | BUY - Strong entry |
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| 50-69 | 🟠 HIGH | BUY - Risk mgmt |
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| 30-49 | 🟡 MODERATE | WAIT - Need confirmation |
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| <30 | 🟢 LOW | SKIP - No signals |
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## 💰 Position Management
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```
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Position Size: 1-2% max per trade
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Stop Loss: 2-3% below entry (HARD STOP)
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Target 1: 5% profit → Move stop to +2%
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Target 2: 10% profit → Reduce to 50%
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Target 3: 15%+ profit → Let winners run
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```
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## ⚠️ Critical Rules (DO THIS)
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✅ Always set stop loss at entry
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✅ Use small position sizes (1-2%)
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✅ Exit on volume collapse
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✅ Trail stops as profit grows
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✅ Keep pump trades separate (max 5-10% portfolio)
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## 🚫 Never Do This
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❌ Chase after 50%+ gains
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❌ Trade without stop loss
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❌ All-in on pump trades
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❌ Hold overnight (dump at open)
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❌ Ignore volume decline
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❌ Use margin on pumps
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❌ Fight the momentum
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## 🛠️ Quick Commands
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```bash
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# Demo analysis (cached data)
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python pump_detection_demo.py
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# Analyze one stock
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python pump_screening.py --ticker NVDA
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# Analyze on specific date
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python pump_screening.py --ticker TSLA --date 2025-12-05
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# Full market screening
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python pump_screening.py
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```
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## 🎓 Pump Lifecycle
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```
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1. Oversold (RSI < 30) or Beaten Down
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↓
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2. Volume Spike (2x+ average)
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↓
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3. Price Acceleration (5-10% in 1-3 days)
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↓
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4. Social Buzz Builds (Reddit, Twitter)
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↓
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5. Peak Euphoria (80-100% move)
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↓
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6. Exhaustion (volume drops)
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↓
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7. Crash (50%+ loss in hours)
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```
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**BEST ENTRY**: Between steps 1-3
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**WORST ENTRY**: Steps 5-6 (too late!)
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**BEST EXIT**: Step 4-5 (take profits before crash)
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## 🚨 Pump-and-Dump Red Flags
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These are DANGEROUS - AVOID:
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- Penny stock (< $5)
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- Extreme volume (10x+)
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- Coordinated social hype
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- Insider selling at peak
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- No fundamental reason
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- Stock already up 100%+
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## 📈 Real Example
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**Date**: Dec 5, 2025
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**Stock**: NVDA
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```
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Volume: 3.2x average ✅
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Price: +12% this week ✅
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Social: #1 trending ✅
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RSI: 65 (not oversold) ❌
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Earnings: Next week ✅
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SCORE: 78/100 = BUY SIGNAL
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Entry: $950
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Stop: $926 (2.5%)
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Target 1: $997 (5%)
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Target 2: $1045 (10%)
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Target 3: $1100+ (15%+)
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```
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## 💡 Pro Tips
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1. **Early volume matters most** - First 30min spike is key indicator
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2. **Social buzz = retail pump** - Instagram/TikTok = next wave
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3. **Oversold bounces work best** - RSI < 20 = strong setup
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4. **Catalysts amplify moves** - Earnings = bigger pump
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5. **Profit in first 5-10%** - Most gains happen there
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6. **Volume confirmation = stay** - Fading volume = exit
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7. **Scalp multiple times** - Take 2-3% gains repeatedly
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8. **Time decay** - Pumps usually done in 1-3 days
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## 📋 Pre-Entry Checklist
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Before entering ANY pump trade:
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- [ ] Pump score ≥ 50?
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- [ ] Volume spike confirmed?
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- [ ] Stop loss set (2-3%)?
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- [ ] Position size ≤ 2%?
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- [ ] Total pump allocation ≤ 10%?
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- [ ] No overnight holds planned?
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- [ ] Exit plan written down?
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- [ ] Ready to monitor 24/7?
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## 🔗 Related Tools
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- `detect_volume_spike()` - Find volume surge
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- `detect_price_acceleration()` - Find momentum
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- `detect_social_sentiment_surge()` - Find buzz
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- `detect_oversold_bounce()` - Find setup
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- `detect_catalyst_event()` - Find catalysts
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- `calculate_pump_score()` - Get final score
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## 📞 When to Skip
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- Stock halted by SEC
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- Volume is only <1.5x
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- No catalyst visible
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- Been pumping for 5+ days
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- Already up 200%+
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- Can't set stop loss
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- Feel "FOMO" (Sell signal!)
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---
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**Remember**: Discipline beats emotion. Stick to rules. Pump trading is HIGH RISK. Size appropriately.
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