docs: add RFC for auto-research intraday prediction module
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# RFC: Auto-Research Loop for Intraday Prediction
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> **Status:** Draft — seeking feedback
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> **Scope:** Additive module (no changes to existing files)
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> **Related:** [ARCHITECTURE_OVERVIEW.md](./ARCHITECTURE_OVERVIEW.md)
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## TL;DR
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Add a `tradingagents/autoresearch/` module that runs walk-forward backtesting
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on the existing `TradingAgentsGraph`, using the existing `reflect_and_remember()`
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memory system to iteratively improve intraday predictions. No existing files
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are modified.
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## The Core Idea
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Apply Andrew Karpathy-style iterative research methodology to the existing TradingAgents architecture:
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> **Take historical data → Predict next day → Check if right → Learn from mistakes → Predict again → Repeat**
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This is essentially **walk-forward backtesting with self-improvement** — a proven concept in quantitative finance, now powered by LLM agents instead of traditional ML models.
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---
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## Design Tradeoffs
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### Strengths of this approach
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| Aspect | Why it works |
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|---|---|
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| **We already have the agents** | TradingAgents already does single-day analysis. We're just running it repeatedly |
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| **We already have the data pipeline** | yfinance gives us free historical data — no new APIs needed |
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| **Walk-forward is proven** | This is how quant funds actually test strategies |
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| **Memory system exists** | `reflect_and_remember()` already learns from past trades |
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| **Iterative learning** | Each wrong prediction improves the next one via memory |
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### Risks requiring careful design
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| Risk | Mitigation |
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|---|---|
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| **LLM API costs** | Each day = ~12 agent calls with LLM. 30 days = 360+ LLM calls. Use `gpt-4o-mini` for quick_think |
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| **Overfitting to past data** | Don't tune prompts to specific dates — tune the APPROACH (which tools matter, what indicators to prioritize) |
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| **Look-ahead bias** | When predicting day 11, the agents must ONLY see data up to day 10. Never leak future data |
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| **Rate limits** | yfinance and Alpha Vantage have limits. Add delays between runs |
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| **What "change everything" means** | Don't change model weights (we can't). Change: which analysts to use, debate rounds, indicator selection, prompt emphasis |
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### Key design decision: no same-day retries
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**Alternative considered:** If a prediction is wrong, retry the same day with a different approach.
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**Rejected because:** Retrying the same day with knowledge of the actual outcome introduces look-ahead bias, which invalidates backtesting results.
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**Recommended approach:** Move forward only — let memory accumulate lessons naturally.
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1. Predict day 11 → Wrong → **Reflect and store lesson in memory**
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2. Move to day 12 with the lesson learned
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3. The memory system naturally improves future predictions
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4. After all 30 days, analyze WHICH types of predictions failed and WHY
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Rationale:
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- Retrying the same day with knowledge of the answer is look-ahead bias
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- The existing memory system already handles "learning from mistakes"
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- The approach (not individual predictions) is what should be tuned
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---
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## How It Maps to Existing Architecture
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```mermaid
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%%{init: {'flowchart': {'nodeSpacing': 80, 'rankSpacing': 100}}}%%
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flowchart TD
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subgraph EXISTING["What TradingAgents Already Does (Single Day)"]
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E1["propagate('NVDA', '2024-05-10')"]
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E2["4 Analysts gather data"]
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E3["Bull vs Bear debate"]
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E4["Trader + Risk debate"]
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E5["Final: BUY/OVERWEIGHT/HOLD/UNDERWEIGHT/SELL"]
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E1 --> E2 --> E3 --> E4 --> E5
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end
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subgraph NEW["What We're Adding (Auto-Research Loop)"]
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N1["train.py<br/>Run propagate() for each day in sequence"]
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N2["evaluation.py<br/>Compare prediction vs actual next-day price"]
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N3["reflect_and_remember()<br/>Store lessons when wrong"]
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N4["model_harness.py<br/>Manage the loop, configs, and results"]
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N5["prompt.py<br/>Define what we're looking for"]
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N1 --> N2 --> N3 --> N4
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N4 -->|"Next day"| N1
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N5 --> N1
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end
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EXISTING -.->|"We call this repeatedly"| NEW
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style EXISTING fill:#e1f5fe,stroke:#0277bd,stroke-width:2px,color:#01579b
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style NEW fill:#fff3e0,stroke:#ef6c00,stroke-width:2px,color:#e65100
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```
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---
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## Time Horizon Configuration
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```mermaid
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%%{init: {'flowchart': {'nodeSpacing': 80, 'rankSpacing': 120}}}%%
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flowchart TD
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USER["User selects time horizon"]
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USER -->|"1 day"| D1["Predict: Tomorrow<br/>Training data: Last 1 month (30 days)<br/>Evaluation: Compare with actual tomorrow"]
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USER -->|"1 week"| D2["Predict: Next 5 trading days<br/>Training data: Last 3 months (60 days)<br/>Evaluation: Compare each day"]
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USER -->|"1 month"| D3["Predict: Next 20 trading days<br/>Training data: Last 6 months (120 days)<br/>Evaluation: Compare each day"]
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subgraph LOGIC["How Training Window Works"]
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L1["Take training window of historical data"]
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L2["Split: first N-10 days = context<br/>last 10 days = walk-forward test"]
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L3["Predict day by day through test window"]
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L4["After test: use full window to predict FUTURE"]
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end
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D1 --> LOGIC
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D2 --> LOGIC
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D3 --> LOGIC
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%% Improved styles
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style D1 fill:#c8e6c9,stroke:#2e7d32,stroke-width:2px,color:#1b5e20
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style D2 fill:#fff9c4,stroke:#f9a825,stroke-width:2px,color:#f57f17
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style D3 fill:#ffccbc,stroke:#d84315,stroke-width:2px,color:#bf360c
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```
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---
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## Complete Auto-Research Pipeline
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```mermaid
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%%{init: {'flowchart': {'nodeSpacing': 80, 'rankSpacing': 120}}}%%
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flowchart TD
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subgraph SETUP["Phase 1: Setup"]
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S1["User inputs:<br/>- Ticker (e.g., NVDA)<br/>- Time horizon (1 day / 1 week / 1 month)<br/>- Start date"]
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S2["prompt.py<br/>Define analysis focus:<br/>- What indicators matter?<br/>- What news to prioritize?<br/>- Risk tolerance?"]
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S3["model_harness.py<br/>Load config + initialize TradingAgentsGraph"]
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S1 --> S3
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S2 --> S3
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end
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subgraph TRAIN["Phase 2: Walk-Forward Training (train.py)"]
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T1["Load training window<br/>(e.g., 30 days for 1-day horizon)"]
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T2["Day 1-20: Historical context<br/>(agents can see this data)"]
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T3["Day 21: First prediction target"]
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T4["Run propagate(ticker, day_20)<br/>Get prediction for day 21"]
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T5["evaluation.py:<br/>Compare prediction vs actual day 21"]
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T6{"Prediction<br/>correct?"}
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T7["reflect_and_remember(positive_return)<br/>Store: what worked"]
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T8["reflect_and_remember(negative_return)<br/>Store: what went wrong + why"]
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T9["Slide window: Add day 21 to context<br/>Now predict day 22"]
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T1 --> T2 --> T3 --> T4 --> T5 --> T6
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T6 -->|"Yes"| T7
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T6 -->|"No"| T8
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T7 --> T9
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T8 --> T9
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T9 -->|"Repeat for days 22-30"| T4
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end
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subgraph EVAL["Phase 3: Evaluation Summary (evaluation.py)"]
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EV1["Accuracy: X/10 days predicted correctly"]
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EV2["Direction accuracy: Did we get UP/DOWN right?"]
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EV3["Magnitude: How close was the prediction?"]
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EV4["Best/worst performing indicators"]
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EV5["Save results to Excel/CSV"]
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end
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subgraph PREDICT["Phase 4: Future Prediction"]
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P1["Use full 30-day window + learned memories"]
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P2["Predict next 10-30 days (based on horizon)"]
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P3["Save predictions to Excel"]
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end
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subgraph VIZ["Phase 5: Visualization"]
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V1["Left chart: Actual price history"]
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V2["Right chart: Predicted prices"]
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V3["Overlay: Where predictions matched/diverged"]
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V4["Metrics dashboard: accuracy, returns, etc."]
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end
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S3 --> T1
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T9 -->|"After all training days"| EV1
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EV1 --> EV2 --> EV3 --> EV4 --> EV5
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EV5 --> P1 --> P2 --> P3
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P3 --> V1
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V1 --> V2 --> V3 --> V4
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%% FIXED STYLES (dark text + stronger borders)
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style SETUP fill:#e1f5fe,stroke:#0277bd,stroke-width:2px,color:#01579b
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style TRAIN fill:#fff3e0,stroke:#ef6c00,stroke-width:2px,color:#e65100
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style EVAL fill:#e8f5e9,stroke:#2e7d32,stroke-width:2px,color:#1b5e20
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style PREDICT fill:#fce4ec,stroke:#c2185b,stroke-width:2px,color:#880e4f
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style VIZ fill:#f3e5f5,stroke:#6a1b9a,stroke-width:2px,color:#4a148c
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```
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---
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## File Structure for the PR
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```mermaid
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%%{init: {
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'themeVariables': {
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'fontSize': '20px',
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'fontFamily': 'Arial',
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'lineColor': '#ffffff'
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},
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'flowchart': {
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'nodeSpacing': 80,
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'rankSpacing': 120
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}
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}}%%
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flowchart TD
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subgraph NEW_FILES["New Files We'll Add"]
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direction TB
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PR["tradingagents/autoresearch/"]
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PR --> TRAIN_PY["train.py<br/>Walk-forward training loop"]
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PR --> EVAL_PY["evaluation.py<br/>Compare predictions vs actual"]
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PR --> MODEL_PY["model.py<br/>Wrapper around TradingAgentsGraph<br/>for batch prediction"]
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PR --> HARNESS["model_harness.py<br/>Orchestrates the full pipeline:<br/>setup → train → eval → predict → viz"]
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PR --> PROMPT_PY["prompt.py<br/>Configurable analysis prompts<br/>and research focus areas"]
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PR --> VIZ_PY["visualization.py<br/>Side-by-side charts<br/>(actual vs predicted)"]
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PR --> RESULTS["results/<br/>Excel/CSV output files"]
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end
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subgraph EXISTING_USED["Existing Files We Use (Don't Modify)"]
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EX1["tradingagents/graph/trading_graph.py<br/>TradingAgentsGraph class"]
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EX2["tradingagents/graph/reflection.py<br/>reflect_and_remember()"]
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EX3["tradingagents/agents/utils/memory.py<br/>FinancialSituationMemory"]
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EX4["tradingagents/dataflows/interface.py<br/>Data routing"]
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EX5["tradingagents/default_config.py<br/>Configuration"]
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end
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HARNESS -->|"calls"| EX1
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EVAL_PY -->|"triggers"| EX2
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EX2 -->|"stores in"| EX3
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MODEL_PY -->|"uses"| EX4
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HARNESS -->|"extends"| EX5
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%% FIXED styles (contrast + borders)
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style NEW_FILES fill:#c8e6c9,stroke:#2e7d32,stroke-width:2px,color:#1b5e20
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style EXISTING_USED fill:#e1f5fe,stroke:#0277bd,stroke-width:2px,color:#01579b
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```
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---
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## Detailed: train.py Logic
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```mermaid
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flowchart TD
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START["train(ticker, horizon, start_date)"]
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WINDOW["Calculate training window<br/>1 day → 30 days lookback<br/>1 week → 90 days lookback<br/>1 month → 180 days lookback"]
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FETCH["Fetch full historical data<br/>yfinance: get_stock_data(ticker, start, end)"]
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SPLIT["Split data:<br/>context_days = window[:-10]<br/>test_days = window[-10:]"]
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INIT["Initialize TradingAgentsGraph<br/>with fresh memories"]
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subgraph LOOP["Walk-Forward Loop (for each test day)"]
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DAY_N["Current test day = day[i]"]
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PROPAGATE["ta.propagate(ticker, day[i-1])<br/>Predict what happens on day[i]"]
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GET_ACTUAL["Get actual price on day[i]<br/>from historical data"]
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COMPARE["evaluation.compare(<br/> predicted=decision,<br/> actual=price_change<br/>)"]
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CORRECT{"Direction<br/>correct?"}
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POSITIVE["ta.reflect_and_remember(+return)<br/>Memory: 'This approach worked<br/>when indicators showed X'"]
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NEGATIVE["ta.reflect_and_remember(-return)<br/>Memory: 'This approach failed<br/>when conditions were Y'"]
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LOG["Log result to results list:<br/>{date, predicted, actual, correct, return}"]
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NEXT["i += 1"]
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DAY_N --> PROPAGATE --> GET_ACTUAL --> COMPARE --> CORRECT
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CORRECT -->|"Yes"| POSITIVE --> LOG
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CORRECT -->|"No"| NEGATIVE --> LOG
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LOG --> NEXT
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NEXT -->|"More days?"| DAY_N
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end
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RETURN["Return results list + trained memory"]
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START --> WINDOW --> FETCH --> SPLIT --> INIT --> LOOP
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NEXT -->|"Done"| RETURN
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style LOOP fill:#fff3e0,stroke:#ef6c00,stroke-width:2px,color:#e65100
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```
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---
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## Detailed: evaluation.py Logic
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```mermaid
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flowchart TD
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INPUT["Input: list of<br/>{date, predicted, actual, correct, return}"]
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subgraph METRICS["Calculated Metrics"]
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M1["Direction Accuracy<br/>% of days where UP/DOWN was correct"]
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M2["Signal Distribution<br/>How many BUY vs HOLD vs SELL"]
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M3["Cumulative Return<br/>If you followed every signal"]
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M4["Max Drawdown<br/>Worst losing streak"]
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M5["Win Rate by Signal Type<br/>BUY accuracy vs SELL accuracy"]
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M6["Best/Worst Days<br/>Biggest wins and losses"]
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end
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subgraph OUTPUT["Output Files"]
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O1["results/training_log.xlsx<br/>Every prediction with details"]
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O2["results/metrics_summary.xlsx<br/>All metrics in one sheet"]
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O3["results/memory_dump.json<br/>What the agents learned"]
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end
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INPUT --> METRICS
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METRICS --> OUTPUT
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style METRICS fill:#e8f5e9,stroke:#2e7d32,stroke-width:2px,color:#1b5e20
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style OUTPUT fill:#e1f5fe,stroke:#0277bd,stroke-width:2px,color:#01579b
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```
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---
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## Detailed: visualization.py Layout
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```mermaid
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flowchart LR
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subgraph LEFT["Left Panel: Actual Data"]
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L1["Stock price line chart"]
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L2["Volume bars below"]
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L3["Key indicators overlay<br/>(SMA 50, SMA 200, RSI)"]
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L4["Green/Red markers:<br/>Days where agents were right/wrong"]
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end
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subgraph RIGHT["Right Panel: Predicted"]
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R1["Agent's predicted direction<br/>per day (arrows up/down)"]
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R2["Confidence level<br/>(BUY=high, OVERWEIGHT=medium, etc.)"]
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R3["Decision breakdown:<br/>Which agents agreed/disagreed"]
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end
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subgraph BOTTOM["Bottom Panel: Comparison"]
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B1["Overlay: actual vs predicted direction"]
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B2["Running accuracy score"]
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B3["Memory growth chart:<br/>How many lessons stored over time"]
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end
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style LEFT fill:#e8f5e9,stroke:#2e7d32,stroke-width:2px,color:#1b5e20
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style RIGHT fill:#fff3e0,stroke:#ef6c00,stroke-width:2px,color:#e65100
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style BOTTOM fill:#e1f5fe,stroke:#0277bd,stroke-width:2px,color:#01579b
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```
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---
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## Detailed: model_harness.py (The Orchestrator)
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```mermaid
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flowchart TD
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subgraph CLI["User Interface"]
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U1["python model_harness.py<br/> --ticker NVDA<br/> --horizon 1day<br/> --start-date 2024-01-01"]
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end
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subgraph HARNESS["model_harness.py Pipeline"]
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H1["Parse arguments"]
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H2["Load/extend config from default_config.py"]
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H3["Initialize TradingAgentsGraph"]
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H4["Phase 1: TRAIN<br/>train.run_walk_forward()"]
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H5["Phase 2: EVALUATE<br/>evaluation.generate_report()"]
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H6["Phase 3: PREDICT<br/>model.predict_future()"]
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H7["Phase 4: VISUALIZE<br/>visualization.create_dashboard()"]
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H8["Save all results to results/"]
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H1 --> H2 --> H3 --> H4 --> H5 --> H6 --> H7 --> H8
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end
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subgraph CONFIG_OPTIONS["Configurable via prompt.py"]
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C1["analysis_focus: 'intraday momentum'"]
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C2["priority_indicators: ['RSI', 'MACD', 'VWAP']"]
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C3["news_weight: 'high' or 'low'"]
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C4["debate_rounds: 1-3"]
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C5["risk_tolerance: 'aggressive' / 'moderate' / 'conservative'"]
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end
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CLI --> HARNESS
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CONFIG_OPTIONS --> H2
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style CLI fill:#f3e5f5
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style HARNESS fill:#e1f5fe,stroke:#0277bd,stroke-width:2px,color:#01579b
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style CONFIG_OPTIONS fill:#fff3e0,stroke:#ef6c00,stroke-width:2px,color:#e65100
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```
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---
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## How prompt.py Works
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```mermaid
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%%{init: {
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'themeVariables': { 'fontSize': '18px' },
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'flowchart': { 'nodeSpacing': 100, 'rankSpacing': 140 }
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}}%%
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flowchart TD
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subgraph PROMPT["prompt.py - Research Focus Configuration"]
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P1["RESEARCH_FOCUS = {<br/> 'mode': 'intraday',<br/> 'timeframe': '1day',<br/> 'focus_areas': [<br/> 'momentum indicators',<br/> 'volume analysis',<br/> 'news catalysts'<br/> ],<br/> 'avoid': [<br/> 'long-term fundamentals',<br/> 'quarterly earnings'<br/> ]<br/>}"]
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P2["This gets injected into the<br/>system prompts of each analyst"]
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end
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subgraph EFFECT["How It Changes Agent Behavior"]
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E1["Market Analyst<br/>→ Prioritizes RSI, MACD, VWAP<br/>→ Focuses on intraday patterns"]
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E2["News Analyst<br/>→ Looks for same-day catalysts<br/>→ Ignores long-term trends"]
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E3["Bull/Bear Researchers<br/>→ Debate short-term momentum<br/>→ Not long-term value"]
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end
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P1 --> P2 --> E1
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P2 --> E2
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P2 --> E3
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style PROMPT fill:#fff3e0,stroke:#ef6c00,stroke-width:2px,color:#e65100
|
||||
style EFFECT fill:#e8f5e9,stroke:#2e7d32,stroke-width:2px,color:#1b5e20
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Walk-Forward Example: 1-Day Horizon with NVDA
|
||||
|
||||
```mermaid
|
||||
gantt
|
||||
title Walk-Forward Training: NVDA 1-Day Prediction
|
||||
dateFormat YYYY-MM-DD
|
||||
|
||||
section Context Window
|
||||
Historical data (agents can see) :done, ctx, 2024-04-01, 20d
|
||||
|
||||
section Test Window (predict one at a time)
|
||||
Day 21 - Predict (first test) :active, d21, 2024-04-21, 1d
|
||||
Day 22 - Predict :d22, 2024-04-22, 1d
|
||||
Day 23 - Predict :d23, 2024-04-23, 1d
|
||||
Day 24 - Predict :d24, 2024-04-24, 1d
|
||||
Day 25 - Predict :d25, 2024-04-25, 1d
|
||||
Day 26 - Predict :d26, 2024-04-28, 1d
|
||||
Day 27 - Predict :d27, 2024-04-29, 1d
|
||||
Day 28 - Predict :d28, 2024-04-30, 1d
|
||||
Day 29 - Predict :d29, 2024-05-01, 1d
|
||||
Day 30 - Predict (last test) :crit, d30, 2024-05-02, 1d
|
||||
|
||||
section After Training
|
||||
Predict FUTURE days :milestone, future, 2024-05-03, 0d
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Step-by-step for Day 21:**
|
||||
1. Agents see data from Apr 1-20 only
|
||||
2. `ta.propagate("NVDA", "2024-04-20")` → Predicts direction for Apr 21
|
||||
3. Check actual Apr 21 price: Was prediction right?
|
||||
4. `ta.reflect_and_remember(actual_return)` → Store lesson
|
||||
5. Now agents see Apr 1-21 → Predict Apr 22
|
||||
6. Repeat...
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## What "Adjusting the Approach" Actually Means
|
||||
|
||||
When a prediction is wrong, here's what safely adjusts vs. what must remain fixed:
|
||||
|
||||
```mermaid
|
||||
%%{init: {
|
||||
'themeVariables': { 'fontSize': '18px' },
|
||||
'flowchart': { 'nodeSpacing': 100, 'rankSpacing': 140 }
|
||||
}}%%
|
||||
flowchart TD
|
||||
WRONG["Prediction was WRONG"]
|
||||
|
||||
subgraph AUTO_CHANGES["Automatic (via reflect_and_remember)"]
|
||||
A1["Memory updated:<br/>'When RSI was 72 and we said BUY,<br/>the stock actually dropped 3%.<br/>Next time: consider overbought signal.'"]
|
||||
A2["Next prediction naturally<br/>considers this lesson via<br/>BM25 memory retrieval"]
|
||||
end
|
||||
|
||||
subgraph AFTER_TRAINING["After full training run (manual analysis)"]
|
||||
B1["Check: Which analyst was most wrong?<br/>→ Maybe disable social analyst for this stock"]
|
||||
B2["Check: Which indicators helped most?<br/>→ Update prompt.py focus_areas"]
|
||||
B3["Check: Were debate rounds enough?<br/>→ Increase max_debate_rounds"]
|
||||
B4["Check: Was risk assessment accurate?<br/>→ Adjust risk_tolerance in config"]
|
||||
end
|
||||
|
||||
subgraph NEVER_CHANGE["What We DON'T Change"]
|
||||
N1["Don't retry the same day<br/>(look-ahead bias = cheating)"]
|
||||
N2["Don't modify the model weights<br/>(LLMs don't work that way)"]
|
||||
N3["Don't change data source mid-run<br/>(inconsistent comparison)"]
|
||||
end
|
||||
|
||||
WRONG --> AUTO_CHANGES
|
||||
WRONG --> AFTER_TRAINING
|
||||
WRONG -.->|"AVOID"| NEVER_CHANGE
|
||||
|
||||
style AUTO_CHANGES fill:#c8e6c9,stroke:#2e7d32,stroke-width:2px,color:#1b5e20
|
||||
style AFTER_TRAINING fill:#fff3e0,stroke:#ef6c00,stroke-width:2px,color:#e65100
|
||||
style NEVER_CHANGE fill:#ffcdd2,stroke:#c62828,stroke-width:2px,color:#b71c1c
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Summary: What We're Building
|
||||
|
||||
```mermaid
|
||||
%%{init: {
|
||||
'themeVariables': { 'fontSize': '18px' },
|
||||
'flowchart': { 'nodeSpacing': 100, 'rankSpacing': 140 }
|
||||
}}%%
|
||||
flowchart TD
|
||||
subgraph PR_SCOPE["PR Scope: tradingagents/autoresearch/"]
|
||||
F1["train.py — Walk-forward loop"]
|
||||
F2["evaluation.py — Metrics + Excel output"]
|
||||
F3["model.py — Batch prediction wrapper"]
|
||||
F4["model_harness.py — Full pipeline orchestrator"]
|
||||
F5["prompt.py — Intraday research focus config"]
|
||||
F6["visualization.py — Actual vs Predicted charts"]
|
||||
end
|
||||
|
||||
subgraph USES["Uses Existing (No Modifications)"]
|
||||
U1["TradingAgentsGraph.propagate()"]
|
||||
U2["TradingAgentsGraph.reflect_and_remember()"]
|
||||
U3["FinancialSituationMemory (BM25)"]
|
||||
U4["All 12 agents + tools + dataflows"]
|
||||
end
|
||||
|
||||
subgraph OUTPUTS["What User Gets"]
|
||||
O1["Excel: Day-by-day predictions vs actual"]
|
||||
O2["Charts: Side-by-side actual vs predicted"]
|
||||
O3["Metrics: Accuracy, returns, win rate"]
|
||||
O4["Trained memory: Lessons for future use"]
|
||||
end
|
||||
|
||||
PR_SCOPE -->|"calls"| USES
|
||||
PR_SCOPE -->|"produces"| OUTPUTS
|
||||
|
||||
style PR_SCOPE fill:#c8e6c9,stroke:#2e7d32,stroke-width:2px,color:#1b5e20
|
||||
style USES fill:#e1f5fe,stroke:#0277bd,stroke-width:2px,color:#01579b
|
||||
style OUTPUTS fill:#f3e5f5,stroke:#6a1b9a,stroke-width:2px,color:#4a148c
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Design Decisions
|
||||
|
||||
| Decision | Choice | Why |
|
||||
|---|---|---|
|
||||
| Retry same day on failure? | **No** — move forward, learn via memory | Retrying with answer knowledge = look-ahead bias |
|
||||
| Modify existing agent code? | **No** — only ADD new files | Clean PR, no risk of breaking existing functionality |
|
||||
| Where does learning happen? | **reflect_and_remember()** — already built | Don't reinvent the wheel |
|
||||
| How to tune approach? | **prompt.py** config + post-training analysis | Separates "what to focus on" from "how it runs" |
|
||||
| Output format? | **Excel + matplotlib charts** | Simple, shareable, no extra dependencies |
|
||||
| Max prediction horizon? | **1 month (not 1 year)** | LLM-based analysis degrades over long horizons |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Questions for Reviewers
|
||||
|
||||
1. **Is the approach sound?** Walk-forward backtesting with memory-based learning vs. alternative approaches the team might prefer?
|
||||
2. **Module location** — `tradingagents/autoresearch/` OK, or better under `experiments/` or `research/`?
|
||||
3. **API cost concern** — Training over 30 days = ~360 LLM calls. Is this acceptable, or should the design include batch/cheap-model modes?
|
||||
4. **Scope** — Start with just `1day` horizon, or all three (`1day`/`1week`/`1month`) in the first iteration?
|
||||
5. **Merged feature or experimental branch?** — Should this live in `main` or as a separate experimental track?
|
||||
|
||||
## Next Steps
|
||||
|
||||
If the approach is approved, a follow-up PR will implement the actual module according to the design above. This RFC is intentionally docs-only to gather feedback before implementation.
|
||||
Loading…
Reference in New Issue