docs: add senior analysis integration design
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# Senior Analysis Integration Design
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**Date:** 2026-03-24
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**Goal**
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Upgrade TradingAgents into a senior-level research system by salvaging selected upstream PRs, adding structured underwriting roles for stocks, integrating the full Polymarket module, and standardizing final outputs under a concise chief-analyst summary layer.
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## Scope
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This design covers:
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- Salvage and integration of upstream PRs:
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- `#401` role-based LLM routing
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- `#244` Macro Analyst
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- `#399` social sentiment tool
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- `#359` Factor Rule Analyst
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- `#392` medium-term positioning upgrade
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- `#452` Chief Analyst supervisor
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- `#432` full Polymarket module
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- New stock-analysis roles:
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- `Valuation Analyst`
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- `Segment Analyst`
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- `Scenario & Catalyst Analyst`
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- `Position Sizing Analyst`
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- Isolation of all work in in-repo git worktrees and branches
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- Push of resulting branches to the `guanghan` fork
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## Non-Goals
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- No direct order placement or brokerage execution
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- No attempt to preserve each PR verbatim if it conflicts with current `main`
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- No change to the current dirty local checkout on `main`
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## Constraints
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- The current repository contains local uncommitted work on `main`; all integration must happen in isolated worktrees.
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- Upstream PRs overlap on graph wiring, config, state schema, CLI flows, and reporting.
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- Several upstream PRs are closed without merge, so behavior must be salvaged rather than blindly cherry-picked.
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## Integration Strategy
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Use a phased branch family instead of a single large merge:
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1. `integration/upstream-stock`
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- Salvage `#401`, `#244`, `#399`, `#359`, `#392`
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- Stabilize the stock pipeline and shared infrastructure
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2. `integration/senior-stock-roles`
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- Add new structured stock roles
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- Upgrade stock outputs from verbose prose to machine-readable underwriting artifacts plus short human summaries
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3. `integration/polymarket-full`
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- Merge full `#432` on a clean parallel branch
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- Keep prediction-market architecture parallel to stocks
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4. `integration/chief-analyst-final`
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- Salvage `#452`
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- Reconcile final summary/reporting behavior across stocks and Polymarket
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5. `integration/final`
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- Final conflict resolution, CLI/reporting cleanup, validation, and push-ready polish
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## Stock Pipeline Target Architecture
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### Core Analysts
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- `market`
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- `social`
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- `news`
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- `fundamentals`
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- `macro`
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- `factor_rule` optional
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### Senior Underwriting Analysts
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- `valuation`
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- fair value range
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- reverse DCF / expectation check
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- comp-based valuation sanity check
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- expected return profile
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- `segment`
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- business unit decomposition
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- segment economics
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- value-driver map
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- `scenario_catalyst`
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- bull/base/bear cases
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- probabilities
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- dated catalyst map
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- thesis invalidation triggers
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- `position_sizing`
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- conviction tier
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- target weight
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- initial size
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- add/trim/exit bands
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- max loss / risk budget
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### Synthesis Layer
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- Bull and bear researchers consume all analyst outputs
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- Research manager produces a structured investment plan
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- Risk debate argues over explicit scenario, valuation, and sizing fields instead of re-paraphrasing prose
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- Portfolio manager produces the canonical action recommendation
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### Final Compression Layer
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- `Chief Analyst`
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- reads full final state
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- emits concise structured output
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- validates that the final recommendation matches supporting evidence
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Required top-level output fields:
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- `verdict`
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- `fair_value`
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- `catalysts`
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- `execution`
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- `tail_risk`
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- `variant_perception`
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## Polymarket Target Architecture
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Adopt `#432` as a parallel product module rather than forcing it into the stock graph.
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Shared conventions that should be standardized across both products:
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- role-based LLM routing
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- structured final recommendation schema
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- chief-analyst summary format
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- report/export conventions
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- sizing vocabulary
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## Data Model Changes
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The current stock system primarily passes long text reports between nodes. That is the main reason downstream reasoning becomes repetitive and weakly quantitative.
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Each senior stock role must emit:
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1. a structured machine-readable object for downstream nodes
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2. a short markdown summary for saved reports
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Examples:
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- `valuation_report` + `valuation_data`
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- `segment_report` + `segment_data`
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- `scenario_catalyst_report` + `scenario_catalyst_data`
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- `position_sizing_report` + `position_sizing_data`
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Research manager, portfolio manager, and chief analyst must consume the structured fields first and use report text only as supporting narrative.
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## Expected Quality Gains
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This design directly addresses the current weaknesses:
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- financial modeling: `valuation`
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- scenario analysis: `scenario_catalyst`
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- concision: `chief analyst`
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- segment breakdown: `segment`
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- peer comp: `#392` plus `valuation`
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- catalyst dating: `scenario_catalyst`
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- sizing framework: `position_sizing`
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- technical-fundamental integration: richer synthesis prompts plus structured cross-role outputs
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- regulatory quantification: modeled under scenarios and valuation sensitivities
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- non-consensus insight: explicit `variant_perception` output
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## Known Conflict Hotspots
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- `tradingagents/graph/setup.py`
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- `tradingagents/graph/trading_graph.py`
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- `tradingagents/default_config.py`
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- `cli/main.py`
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- `cli/utils.py`
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- `tradingagents/agents/utils/agent_states.py`
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- `tradingagents/agents/utils/agent_utils.py`
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- reporting and final-output rendering paths
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## Conflict Resolution Rules
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- Prefer current `main` architecture as the baseline
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- Salvage upstream behavior, not exact file diffs
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- Normalize all final outputs onto one structured schema
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- Keep Polymarket parallel where product boundaries differ
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- Preserve backward compatibility where practical, but favor correctness over perfect prompt compatibility
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## Validation Requirements
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Each phase must leave the branch runnable and testable.
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Minimum validation per phase:
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- targeted unit tests for new modules and graph wiring
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- `python -m compileall tradingagents tests`
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- CLI smoke checks where relevant
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- end-to-end stock analysis smoke check after stock phases
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- end-to-end Polymarket smoke check after Polymarket phase
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## Deliverables
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- isolated branch family in `.worktrees/`
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- implementation plan document
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- integrated branches pushed to `guanghan`
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- final integration branch that combines stock upgrades, Polymarket, and chief-analyst output standardization
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