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docs(spec): fix hypothesis capacity — running experiments never paused 

Pending hypotheses queue by priority and promote when a slot opens,
rather than pausing a running experiment mid-streak.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Youssef Aitousarrah 2026-04-09 23:50:55 -07:00
parent de4ef56c91
commit 36884966f1
1 changed files with 8 additions and 6 deletions
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14
docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-09-hypothesis-backtesting-design.md
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@ -61,8 +61,8 @@ The `active.json` file lives on `main`. Each hypothesis branch (`hypothesis/<sca
| Field | Description |
|---|---|
| `id` | `<scanner>-<slug>` — unique, used for branch and file names |
| `status` | `running` / `paused` / `concluded` |
| `priority` | 1–10 (higher = more important); auto-pause lowest when at capacity |
| `status` | `running` / `pending` / `concluded` |
| `priority` | 1–9 (higher = more important); determines queue order for `pending` hypotheses |
| `hypothesis_type` | `statistical` (answer from existing data) or `implementation` (requires branch + forward testing) |
| `min_days` | Minimum picks days before conclusion analysis runs |
| `picks_log` | Dates when the runner collected picks on this branch |
@ -83,12 +83,14 @@ The `active.json` file lives on `main`. Each hypothesis branch (`hypothesis/<sca
2. **Statistical path:** Run the analysis immediately against existing performance data. Write conclusion to the relevant scanner domain file (`docs/iterations/scanners/<scanner>.md`). Done — no branch created.
3. **Implementation path:**
a. Read `active.json`. If `running` count < 5, proceed. If at 5, auto-pause the entry with the lowest `priority` (set `status: "paused"`, keep branch alive).
a. Read `active.json`. If `running` count < 5, start immediately. If all 5 slots are occupied by running experiments, add the new hypothesis as `status: "pending"` — running experiments are never interrupted (pausing mid-experiment breaks the picks streak and invalidates the statistical comparison).
b. Create branch `hypothesis/<scanner>-<slug>` from `main`.
c. Implement the minimal code change on the branch.
d. Open a draft PR: title `hypothesis(<scanner>): <title>`, body describes the hypothesis, expected impact, and `min_days`.
e. Write new entry to `active.json` on `main` with `status: "running"`.
f. Print summary: branch name, PR number, expected conclusion date.
e. Write new entry to `active.json` on `main` with `status: "running"` (or `"pending"` if at capacity).
f. Print summary: branch name, PR number, expected start date (if pending), expected conclusion date (if running).
**Pending → running promotion:** At the end of each daily runner cycle, after any experiments conclude, the runner checks for `pending` entries and promotes the highest-priority one to `running` if a slot opened up.
**Priority scoring** (set at creation time):
@ -175,7 +177,7 @@ New "Hypotheses" tab in the Streamlit dashboard.
| Hypothesis | Scanner | Status | Days | Picks | Expected Ready | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scan 3 expirations | options_flow | running | 3/14 | 4 | 2026-04-23 | 8 |
| ITM-only filter | options_flow | paused | 1/14 | 1 | — | 5 |
| ITM-only filter | options_flow | pending | 0/14 | 0 | waiting for slot | 5 |
**Concluded experiments table:**